The point spread is such a ubiquitous part of sports gambling that it has become fodder for pundits and fans who would never place a wager. “Notre Dame is giving up 6 points to USC,” someone might say. “I didn’t know that USC was looking that good this year.”
Instead of judging whether they think the numbers are correct or misguided, people are more likely to simply accept what Vegas has to say. The spread becomes just another prediction.
Money line is also sometimes referred to as “American Odds.” The standard (and often implied) number is –110, meaning a successful bet of $110 would net $100 profit. This is the “juice”. Get all your NFL, NBA, MLB, NHL, and college scores and odds in one place. Covers is your source for Sports Betting information. A baseball game becomes official for moneyline betting purposes after 4 1/2 innings if home team is winning, or 5 innings if visiting team is winning. The game must be called official. Baseball wagering is unique in that there is no traditional point spread set for a ballgame. Instead, sportsbooks focus on run totals, the run line, and, most commonly, the money line (ML). When you wager on the ML, you are picking who you think will win the contest outright. A betting line is a form of betting whereby the bookmaker handicaps a team/player to effectively make the contest 50/50. This handicap is set by creating a margin (line) between the two teams, in a contest where there are only two outcomes possible. An Example of How Betting Lines Work.
Baseball wagering is unique in that there is no traditional point spread set for a ballgame. Instead, sportsbooks focus on run totals, the run line, and, most commonly, the money line (ML).
When you wager on the ML, you are picking who you think will win the contest outright. It doesn’t matter how many runs a team scores or how many runs they win by, they just need to score more than their opponent.
This, of course, comes with a catch. A sportsbook is not going to give the same odds to win between a division-leading team with their best starter on the mound and a team at the bottom of the division throwing a bottom-of-the-rotation pitcher.
How to Read MLB Baseball Money Lines – Basic Explanation & Definition
What oddsmakers do in lieu of the point spread is to weigh the moneyline with heavier odds on the favorite. This is an example of what the numbers on a typical ballgame might look like:
- Texas Rangers (-150)
- Oakland A’s (+130)
The Rangers are projected to prevail. The favorite in the match-up will always be the negative (-) number, while the underdog is always positive (+), just like the numbers work with point spreads.
The easiest way to factor the risk vs reward is in terms of $100. In the example above, the (-150) means that you’d need to risk $150 to win $100 on the Texas Rangers. This means if the Rangers prevail, you will be paid $100 (plus your initial $150 investment), however, if the Rangers lose, you lose $150. You must increase the amount you risk on Texas because they are handicapped as the team most likely to take the game.
As for the A’s, at (+130), that number tells you that you can risk $100 to win $130 on them. A winning wager on Oakland gives you $130 (plus you’ll get back the $100 you bet), while a losing bet on the A’s would only cost you $100.
Learn About Baseball Line Prices: Dime Line vs 20 Cent Line
In the example above, and at most sportsbooks, you’ll have what is called a 20 cent line. All that this means is that the absolute value of the favorite price is 20 cents more than the underdog price (150 – 130 = 20). With reduced juice or dime line odds, you’ll get a 10 cent difference. On the very same game, a dime line book like 5Dimes would set the prices at -140 and +130 (140 – 130 = 10). This definitely gives you an edge simply because it takes away some of the built-in vig the book uses to calculate their odds. More on this to come.
Calculating Probability
When it comes to the money line can help to think in terms of probability. In other words, how likely is it that one team will beat the other? This is the foundation of baseball betting and is important to understand before really understanding the money line.
Convert Money Lines to Percentage
There are two formulas you will need to convert baseball betting lines into probability. The formula you use depends on whether the line is positive or negative.
Positive
Example: Money Line = +130
Negative
Example: Money Line = -150
Understanding Vig/Bookmaker Margin: Calculating the No-Vig Line
The astute bettor will notice right away that the probability on each side of an MLB game does not add up to 100%. This is because there is a built-in vig or edge for the bookmaker that helps them make their money. To get the true probability for each side of a game, you need to remove that edge.
Start by adding the two probabilities together. In our example, we had 43.5% + 60% = 103.5%; 103.5%. From the 103.5%, the 3.5% is the estimated vig on this pair of odds (some books do adjust differently on favorites versus underdogs, but we do not need to go into that in detail at this point). We can then take each percentage and divide it by the combined percentage to give us the true probability for each team.
In this matchup, the line tells you that in a fair (no vig) market the underdog has a 42% chance of winning and the favorite has a 58% of winning. This is relevant because as you start to make predictions, you will come up with your own probabilities for a matchup and compare them to the available odds to see whether or not your prediction has value based on these fair market odds.
How to Calculate MLB Baseball Moneylines for Betting Risk & Reward
If you aren’t betting exactly $100 per game, it’s easy to calculate your risk/reward by converting MLs to decimals and multiplying those numbers by your wager amount. A couple of examples:
- If the ML is (-134) and you want to wager enough to collect $35 on that team, you must convert the ML to -1.34 and multiply by $35, which equals $46.90; the amount that is needed to risk on a favorite of -(134) to win $35.
- If you’re looking to bet an underdog of (+172) and have $47 available for a wager, then calculate 1.72 x $47 = $80.25, which is the amount you could collect on a (+172) underdog with a $47 bet.
Using Major League Baseball Odds to Your Advantage
The great part about the ML is that when you bet on underdogs, you can decrease the percentage of games you need to pick correctly to show a profit. For example, if you wager on 100 games with an average line of (-130), you would need to score on 58% (58 of 100) of your bets just to turn a profit, betting $100 per game. You should be paid out $5,800, but lose $5,460 on these bets, giving you a total profit of $340.
Now, looking at a situation where you bet on mostly small underdogs, say an average line of (+115) over 100 bets, you would only need accuracy on about 47% of your picks (47 of 100) to show a profit. You should receive $5,405 in this case while losing $5,300, a profit of $105. Say you can up your winning percentage to 50% at an average money line of (+115). If you are able to do that, you should instead collect $5,750, while losing $5,000, a profit of $750.
Remember that pitching is still the ultimate factor in making your picks and predictions. But a club that recently won a low-scoring outing as a ‘dog is dangerous and almost never a bad wager. Once a team has proven it can small-ball grind its way to upsets of more talented clubs, they carry more value than a squad that got lucky with 5 homers against the Yankees.
Underdog Betting Equals Value In MLB Wagers
As you can see, winning bets on underdogs can add up quickly. Sportsbooks are, of course, well aware of this, but because most people lean toward favorites and not underdogs, they don’t really care. Like a grocery store putting its sweet snacks at toddler-eye level, the books know that some people are wise to their strategy – but enough of a % of shoppers won’t be. Don’t be taken advantage of. Take advantage!
There are few sure-fire handicapping systems that lead to sustained profit in any sport. NFL wagering, for instance, can be a supreme challenge due to its volatility and the sheer amount of action leveling out the lines. The NBA can be a bear due to “garbage time” and other factors that affect the Over/Under.
Not to say that a cash player can’t make money over time wagering on those sports, but when you find a system that is proven to work in a sport where lines can’t be adjusted too much (due to being set in the morning and paid off by night), then it’s never a bad idea to learn those tactics – even if you don’t always adhere to them.
The numbers above show that if managing to choose your picks on the diamond wisely and take as many high-value underdogs as you can, you will be well on your way to a profitable summer.
Moneyline means you are betting who will win the baseball game Straight Up (SU) without a point spread. The team that wins the game wins the wager. The team with the negative sign (i.e. Philadelphia -115) is usually the favorite. In the example above the team with the larger negative amount is the favourite. In this case it is Philadelphia ML (Moneyline) -115 odds. This means that you have to pay $115 to win $100. The Moneyline is a payout ratio you can bet more or less and the payout will be adjusted to the payout odds.| Rot # | Team | Run Line | Moneyline | Total | Team Total |
| 953 | Atlanta BravesJair Jurrjens - R | +1½ -220 | -105 | 8½ O -120 | 4 O -125 4 U -105 |
| 954 | Philadelphia PhilliesJamie Moyer - L | -1½ +180 | - 115 | 8½ U Even | 4 O-1304 U Even |
Baseball Runline Explained
Run Line
(RL) The Run Line in baseball is equivalent to the point spread in football and is always set at -1.5 or +1.5. You win the wager by covering the spread - or + the spread. Some online baseball sports books will carry alternative Run Lines where the spread is -2.5, +2.5 or larger. In the example above the Philadelphia Phillies Run Line (RL) is - 11/2 +140 meaning that the Phillies need to win by two or more runs for you to win your wager. The +140 is the payout odds if you win meaning that for every $100 bet on the Phillies Runline payouts $140. Baseball Totals Explained
Total The Total betting line is also referred to the Over/Under Total and in this example it is 8½ O -120. For you to win your wager the Total runs from both teams would have to be 9 runs or more. The payout odds of -120 odds means that for every $120 bet pays out $100.Baseball Team Totals Explained
Team Total Team Totals you are just betting on the individual team and how many runs they are going to score. In the example above the Atlanta Braves have a Team Total of 4 Over -125. So if you bet on the Team Total Over for every $125 bet would payout $100. The Phillies Team Total Under is 4 U Even. Even odds are equivalent to +100 odds meaning that for every $100 bet will payout $100.Baseball Parlays Explained
Baseball Parlays A baseball parlay combines two or more bets into a bigger payoff. All of the legs of the wagers must win for you to win your wager. Baseball Parlays are especially popular with bettors looking for big payday with little down. MLB has so many games each day that Baseball parlays can payout big odds.Baseball Future Odds Explained
Baseball Future Odds Baseball and MLB Future odds are odds on a future event and not a specific game. For example, MLB Future odds are usually posted an updated once a week on who will win the World Series.Baseball Proposition (Or Prop) Bets Explained
Baseball Proposition Bets MLB Prop bets are bets not related to the final score of the game. Baseball Prop bets are usually related to MLB players stats for the game. For example, Which player will have the most runs, RBI and home runs in the Braves Vs Phillies game?Chipper Jones (ATL) -110Ryan Howard (PHI) -110 Prop bets are very popular with baseball fans as they can usually bet on the most popular players. MLB Prop bets can also be very profitable if you can handicap streaky MLB players.Baseball Betting Explained - Questions
What Is a Run Line in Baseball Betting?
The Run Line in baseball is the same as the point in football. It usually is set as -1.5 or +1.5. You can win a bet by covering the spread either by – or +. White 1,5 is a usual case, the set number may also differ depending on a specific sportsbook. In some case, certain platforms may also carry alternative Run Lines at a spread -2.5, +2.5 or even larger.How Does the Betting Line Work?
Betting line is a type of betting where a bookmaker sets a certain margin or a line for a team. This hence makes the game equal and this type of betting is available only when there are two teams playing against each other.What Does Moneyline Mean in Baseball Betting?
Moneyline is when you bet on a baseball team which you think is going to win Straight Up with no point spread. And hence whichever team wins the game, it wins the bet. The set favourite team to win is given with a negative (-) sign.What Do the Odds Mean for Baseball?
Betting odds in baseball show the predicted probability of a game’s outcome. The odds are there for you to figure out how much you will win in case you make any specific bet.What Is Over Under in Baseball?
An over–under bet in baseball is a wager that is predicted by a sportsbook which predicts a number for a statistic in the game. It is usually the combined score of the two teams. And so the bettors place wagers on the actual number in the game. This can be either higher or lower than the predicted number.How Do Plus and Minus Odds Work?
A 'minus' (-) odd indicates the team which is the favourite for a win in the game. A 'plus' (+) is hence the number that indicates the team which is an underdog of the game.How Does the Money Line Work in Baseball?
A money line in baseball takes the place of a point spread. Money line betting is the type of wagering when it is made on the contest based on a certain price instead of point spread. So the team you will be betting on has to win the game outright. And the actual score of the game here is not important as long as it is a win.What Does +400 Mean in a Bet?
+400 in a bet mean that your bet will pay you 4 to 1 in case of a win. In case of -400 on a team means you will need to lay 4 to 1.How Does a Money Line Work?
The simple way of betting in a sportsbook is money line. This allows you bet on a specific team who you think is going to win the game. Typically in case of this betting type bettors wager for a team with a positive sign.What Is Money Line and Run Line?
The simple way of betting in a sportsbook is money line. This allows you bet on a specific team who you think is going to win the game. In case of Run line, it is the amount of runs that one of the teams wins the game. Most of the baseball games have run line worth 1,5 and hence the favourite team is 1,5 and the underdog is -1,5.What Does +1.5 Mean in Baseball?
+1,5 in baseball means that the specific team can lose or win the game by 1 run. In case of -1,5, the team has to win the game by 2 runs.What Is the Moneyline in Baseball?
The simple way of betting in a sportsbook on baseball is money line. This allows you bet on a specific team who you think is going to win the game.What Does Money Line Mean?
The simple way of betting in a sportsbook is money line. This allows you bet on a specific team who you think is going to win the game.What Is a Reverse Run Line?
A reverse or alternative run line is when you bet on the underdog to win or lose the game by more than 1 run.
What Is Alternate Run Line?
Alternate run line is a game with a spread of 1.5 runs just like run line. Meanwhile there is an important difference- in alternate run line the underdog faces a spread of -1.5 while in run line they face +1,5.What Is a Negative Money Line?
Negative money line shows the amount that you need to bet in order to win $100. So for example if the money line is -300, this means you will need to bet $300 and your team needs to win.What Is a Money Line Parlay?
Parlay is a single bet which will combine 2 or even more bets in one with the aim to have higher payouts. So if you have 2 team parlay you may have a pay worth 13/5 and the more teams you have the payouts hence increase.Can You Lose Money on a Winning Bet?
In a wining bet you still make a profit as your initial bet is returned. Meanwhile you still need to risk the amount that is higher than what you bet for.What Does Over 1.5 Goals Mean?
In the case when you bet on the fact that there will be more than 1,5 goals scored in a certain game, this means that at least 2 goals need to be scored for you to have a win. In case you bet under 1,5, then you will need no more than 1 goal to be scored.What Does Under 2.75 Goals Mean?
In case of under 2,75 goals, you will have half of your entire stake on 2,5 goals and the other half on 3. So if the game scores in total of 3 goals you will win half of your bet and in case of 4 goals you will win all your bet. In case of 2 or less goals you will lose the bet.